Do Voice of Croton's write-in candidates have a path to electoral victory?

The answer: A hard maybe. That's because we have to wait until November 16 for the write-in votes to be counted. But we might have an idea before then.

On the morning of the election, we reported that villagers might not know who has won the two open seats on the Croton Board of Trustees until at least November 16, the date the Westchester Board of Elections is tentatively slated to begin counting write-in votes. That is especially true, as we pointed out, if the election turns out to be close.

In other communities that did not have major write-in campaigns, such as that mounted by the Voice of Croton, voters will of course know the results in a fairly short time—just as we now know that Donald Trump has won the presidency of the United States, and Mondaire Jones has lost his bid to be our Congressman in the 17th Congressional District. We did not have to wait 10 or more days to find that out, although there have been relatively rare cases when we did (think Bush v. Gore in 2000.)

Under New York state law, write-in candidates have the same status as candidates whose names are printed on the ballot, if they can manage to get the most votes. Croton has had write-in campaigns before. While no one has won them in recent history, there have been some impressive showings. But that status is not reflected in how they are treated by Boards of Elections, which appear to feel free to wait a significant amount of time before counting their votes (unlike the votes of Len Simon and Maria Slippen, whose tallies, incomplete as they may currently be, can already be found in the Board of Election database.)

We will pass for now on commenting about the justice of this. The practical effect is that the people of Croton are in the dark about who will be sitting on their Board of Trustees, and will remain so for many days to come.

Croton Democrats

In this particular election, the campaigns themselves have so far chosen not to comment on the likelihood of either side’s victory. This evening, Croton Democrats put out the following statement on their Facebook page:

“We received overwhelming support from the Democrats of our village. Their participation in the 2024 election made possible the successful election of Kirsten Gillibrand, Dana Levenberg, Peter Harckham, all the Democratic judges and the District Attorney, as well as the passing of Proposition 1. We are grateful for your unwavering support.

As expected, the results of yesterday's election are not yet available. As posted on the Board of Election website, our candidates each received almost 2,500 votes, a number that in past years was more than sufficient to win an election to the Village Board. This year, unlike when candidates are on the ballot, the processing of write-in ballots involves initial sorting, identification, validation, manual counting, reconciliation and reporting, and certification. The entire process may take up to two weeks. Please rest assured that we are actively monitoring the situation and will provide updates as more information becomes available from the Board of Elections.”

Voice of Croton

As for the Voice of Croton, candidates Gary Eisinger and Nigel Ravelo have only issued a brief statement so far, which can be found on their Facebook page:

“It's still too soon to announce any winners, but we had a tremendous showing and are so grateful for all of the support. A definitive answer should be announced within two weeks.”

Here at the Chronicle, we are trying to balance the need to inform readers about what is going on in their own community with responsible reporting, based on actual data from election returns and other sources of information. With the advice of an expert in local elections and write-in campaigns, we have been trying to decipher the numbers and coming up with some estimates of how the election has turned out.

Even though the write-in votes have not yet been counted, there are methods that can be used to estimate how many went to Eisinger and Ravelo before they are actually tallied by hand at the Board of Elections office in White Plains later this month. We are currently engaged in that process. The one thing we can say now is that the write-in candidates performed quite impressively.

But there are many uncertainties that need to be resolved before we can responsibly report our findings (these include varying interpretations of how those votes should be counted, absentee and mail-in ballots, and other factors, and even uncertainties about ballots from early voting and on election day.)

We think that if Simon and Slippen had won in any kind of landslide, they probably already would have told us that. Their caution, which we think is well-advised, suggests that they too are trying to figure things out. (If they suddenly make an announcement, of course we will all find out about it rapidly.)

We do need to note one important point, however. Croton Democrats have an advantage in this process that independent write-in candidates do not. The county Board of Elections has a Democratic Commissioner and a Republican Commissioner, to whom candidates and campaigns can quickly turn if there are any issues during an election and to get what can fairly be called inside information.

Write-in candidates, on the other hand, do not have their own commissioners, and often have to find people to talk to at the BOE on an ad hoc basis.

“The county BOE is designed as an insider boys and girls club of Republican and Democratic bosses,” our election expert told us,” whereas Eisinger and Ravelo “are independent candidates.”

Indeed, as a media outlet trying to cover a write-in campaign, we have received only very limited help from BOE staff ourselves.

An example of how this process works occurred just last evening, after the Chronicle reported factually and accurately that there were problems with how voting machines were handling write-in ballots, leading to jammed machines and in some cases down time for voters that went on for at least an hour.

Democratic Party activists in Croton were able to quickly get the ear of election officials to complain about our reports. Thus Ana Teague, president of the Croton-Harmon school board and a leading admin of The Croton Point Facebook page, quickly contacted the Democratic Party Commissioner, who told her they had no reports of problems (the Board itself had been informed by poll workers, however, and had sent technicians to help solve the problems.) Teague reported her discussion with the Commissioner on The Croton Point and on the Croton Uncensored Facebook pages.

Likewise, Nora Regis, another Democratic Party activist and also an admin at The Croton Point, contacted the Board of Elections to see if “there was anything we could do about misinformation” allegedly emanating from the Chronicle. But Regis, of course, was told no, given that the First Amendment protects freedom of the press. Regis also reported her discussions with Board officials on The Croton Point. (The Chronicle stands by its reporting.)

This kind of quick access is not available to Voice of Croton nor its candidates, who are still working to figure out what at least the preliminary vote tallies were up to and on Election Day—as is the Chronicle.

We do not, however, intend to remain silent until November 16. We will report our own projections about who has won this election well before that, once we have more data and more confidence in our own analyses.

In the meantime, for the people of Croton, it is a matter of watching and waiting, in the dark.

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